The Fall of El Mencho: Implications for Mexico’s Drug Wars
In a significant development in Mexico’s ongoing battle against drug cartels, one of the nation’s most feared drug lords, known as El Mencho, has been confirmed dead. The Mexican army reported that he was killed during a dawn raid in the town of Talpapa. El Mencho, the co-founder and leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), was notorious for his extreme violence and had a $15 million bounty placed on him by the United States for his role in the international drug trade.
The immediate aftermath of El Mencho’s death has unleashed violent reactions from suspected members of his cartel, with reports of dozens of vehicles being set ablaze in both Jalisco and neighboring states. This chaos underscores the ongoing instability within Mexico as the government grapples with the power vacuum left by the death of such a high-profile figure.
Will Grant, our Latin America correspondent, provides insights into the looming uncertainty following El Mencho’s demise. He notes that leaders of criminal organizations often carry a disproportionate influence. While the military’s success may be seen as a tactical victory, the organization itself is well-armed and deeply entrenched in the drug trafficking world, especially when it comes to methamphetamine, cocaine, and fentanyl.
The question surfaces regarding the effectiveness of the so-called "kingpin strategy." This approach, which involves eliminating top leaders of drug cartels, has been met with mixed results. While it may disrupt an organization temporarily, history shows that new leaders are often quick to emerge. In El Mencho’s case, the CJNG, under his nearly cult-like rule for 15 years, is likely to fragment as various factions vie for control.
Chris Dolby, a policy analyst and author of a guide on the CJNG, echoes these concerns. He emphasizes that although El Mencho’s removal may have been necessary given his direct responsibility for countless violent deaths, the subsequent power struggle could lead to even greater instability. Rivalries among his lieutenants may ignite violent turf wars as they compete for the lucrative criminal empire he left behind.
The CJNG is not just a drug trafficking organization; it has expanded its operations into a multitude of illegal enterprises, including extortion, illegal mining, and oil theft. The war for dominance among remaining leaders could escalate violent conflict, extending beyond Mexico’s borders and impacting neighboring countries and even the United States.
US involvement, particularly in the realm of intelligence assistance during the raid that led to El Mencho’s death, has also been scrutinized. Although the Mexican military executed the raid independently, the operation’s proximity to US interests in curbing drug trafficking may allow both governments to tout it as a significant achievement. The Biden administration may now leverage this incident to highlight their commitment to combatting cartels and addressing issues surrounding fentanyl trafficking.
Amidst the swirling chaos, the response from both the Mexican government and the United States will be crucial. As recent statements from the US Department of State have issued shelter-in-place warnings for citizens in various Mexican states, the potential fallout from El Mencho’s death could pose a threat to both diplomatic relations and security within Mexico and beyond.
However, as the situation unfolds, one can’t help but wonder what the long-term consequences will be. Previous kingpin takedowns have often led to more violence, not less. The challenges surrounding the replacement of a figure like El Mencho, who has left no clear successor, compound the potential for more brutal confrontations in the drug landscape.
In conclusion, El Mencho’s killing may mark a pivotal moment in Mexico’s drug war, but it is only one chapter in an ongoing saga that is far from resolved. The coming weeks and months will reveal the extent of the fallout and whether this operation will genuinely contribute to a more stable and secure environment in Mexico, or if it will merely set the stage for further violence in the quest for cartel supremacy. As stakeholders in the fight against drugs, the governments of Mexico and the United States must address the root causes of cartel violence rather than merely focusing on the elimination of high-profile leaders.
